100 Hours Agenda: What Happens Next

House Democrats have finished the 100 Hours agenda. But now that the bills are through the House, what are the chances that these bills, as written, will be enacted into law?

Let’s take a look at these one by one, shall we.

9/11 Commission Recommendations

This bill, which would enact all of the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, has the best chance of them all to make it to the White House and be signed. In the House, it was passed on a vote of 299 – 128, with 100% Democratic support and 68 votes from Republicans.

Minimum Wage Increase

This bill was passed with even more support in the House, on a vote of 315 – 116. But Senate Republicans and the White House have decided it is too good to give workers in this country a raise without also giving tax cuts out to others.

The Senate Finance Committee voted to add $8.3 billion in tax breaks for small businesses to legislation that would increase the minimum wage. The panel also agreed to cap the amount of tax-deferred pay employees can receive each year.

The committee voted unanimously to approve the tax measures, including a an extension until 2012 of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit, which benefits companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Olive Garden restaurant owner Darden Restaurants Inc. that hire workers on welfare. The legislation offsets the cost of the tax breaks with about a dozen revenue-raising proposals, including a $1 million limit on executive compensation that qualifies for tax-deferred status.

The tax cuts will become part of Senate legislation that would raise the minimum wage by $2.10, to $7.25, over two years, the first such increase in a decade. Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, said the tax incentives were necessary to help the minimum-wage increase pass in the narrowly divided Senate and avoid a veto by President George W. Bush.

It is pretty sad that you also have to give tax cuts to Wal-Mart to give a raise to the lowest paid workers in the US. But anyways, we will now have an $8.3 billion minimum wage bill, which can now add to the massive budget deficit the Republicans have put on our country.

Stem Cell Research

In the House, the bill passed on a vote of 253 – 174. There is also a good chance this bill will pass the Senate. This time the White House is going to obstruct and veto the bill anyways, even though the American people spoke clearly in several elections, including in the purple state of Missouri. We should also note that many House Republicans, several who were involved in close elections in 2006, voted No on this bill. If they vote against it again after the President vetoes it, they can expect challenges in 2008. It is not a very smart idea to vote against this when the issue is becoming very big nationally.

Medicare Prescription Drug Price Negotiation Act

The bill, which allows the government to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies for lower drug prices, passed the House 255 – 170. You can read about ongoing efforts for this bill here.

In short, here is what the President has to say about the House bill:

President Bush on Thursday indicated he would veto a bill (HR4) that would require the HHS secretary to negotiate directly with pharmaceutical companies on prices for medications under the Medicare prescription drug benefit, the New York Times reports (Pear, New York Times, 1/12). The White House in a written statement said that the bill, which the House is scheduled to consider on Friday, would create “[g]overnment interference [that] impedes competition, limits access to lifesaving drugs, reduces convenience for beneficiaries and ultimately increases costs to taxpayers, beneficiaries and all American citizens alike.”

Yeah, do they think anyone believes the White House actually cares about the costs of health care to ordinary American citizens? Come on, please.

The Senate is now trying to find a compromise bill that will allow negotiation on some prescription drugs, where competition has had little success in bringing down the price of drugs.

College Student Relief Act

This bill passed the House, on a vote of 356 – 71, again with 100% of Democrats and this time a majority of Republicans, 124 – 71. Still, even in the House, Democrats had to cut most of their original plans from the bill. The bill now only reduces interest rates on subsidized students’ loans by half. An increase in Pell Grants, unsubsidized loans, and loans taken out by parents for a child’s education are all not covered by the bill, as originally planned.

Here is some more information on this.

The House student-loan bill required some deft maneuvering. Miller laid aside the original plan, which would have cost an estimated $45 billion, in favor of the slimmed-down and phased-in approach, whose $5.8 billion cost would be offset by cutting payments to lenders and guarantee agents.
Miller pledged that, later in this Congress, Democrats would find ways to increase Pell Grants, to make tax credits easier to understand and to press colleges and universities to help hold down costs.

I sure hope Congress increase Pell Grants later on. For now, the only thing passed is this free bill.

There is also possible good news from the Senate on this bill.

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., chairman of the education committee, is considering a broader bill that would increase grants and tax credits.

For once, the Senate will do more than the House? That would probably be too much. We will have to wait and see.

Energy Bill

This bill has very good chances of getting all the way through the House, the Senate, and the White House.

From the New York Times:

House Democrats, brushing aside objections from the Bush administration, said on Wednesday that they had ample votes to pass a bill on Thursday that would eliminate $14 billion in subsidies and tax breaks for oil companies and channel the money to renewable-energy projects.

In a sign of how political sentiment on energy issues has shifted, lawmakers in both parties expect the bill to draw considerable support from Republicans, many of whom voted in favor of the tax breaks three years ago.

On Wednesday, the White House said it “strongly opposes” several provisions in the bill but only hinted at a possible veto if the bill increased overall government spending in 2007 above limits that Mr. Bush set last year.

Few lawmakers expect Mr. Bush to resort to a veto, if only because the energy bill would lead to a tiny increase in revenue in its first year.

Senators have also pledged to pass this bill.

Senate Democrats are expected to support the royalty provisions of the House bill. On Wednesday, Senate Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee argued that the government spends billions of dollars on royalty incentives for offshore drillers yet gets little in the way of increased production.

Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, said he would seek the elimination of all royalty incentive programs.

So it is looking good on that one.

In short, here is what we can expect:

Likely

9/11 Commission Recommendations: Will enhance airport and port security

Minimum Wage Bill: Will increase minimum wage to $7.25, Senate bill will include $8.3 billion in tax cuts for companies like Wal-Mart

Energy Bill: $14 billion in tax cuts for oil companies will now be spent on renewable-energy sources, research, and conservation incentives.

College Loan Interest Rate Cut: Will only cover some loans, No increase in Pell Grants likely unless passed by Senate and agreed in Conference and by the President

Partially Likely

Medicare Prescription Drug Negotiation: White House will not pass House bill approving all negotiation. Compromise bill may be passed by Senate, but would only cover some drugs, and would only possibly be passed by White House.

No Chance

Stem Cell Research: Passed in House and Will Be Passed in Senate, however the President will veto it and it is unlikely votes can be gathered to overturn the veto. But look on the bright side, Stem Cell Research will be a huge issue in the next election and we can make sure it gets passed in the next Congress with even more Democrats.

It looks like this going to be what we get out of the 100 Hours agenda. On the House clock, they are not actually even halfway through with time, so maybe there will even be some more surprises.

Overall, at least some achievements will be made.